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Supplementary Material for: A Predictive Microsimulation Model to Estimate the Clinical Relevance of Reducing Alcohol Consumption in Alcohol Dependence

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posted on 14.03.2017, 12:07 by François C., Laramée P., Rahhali N., Chalem Y., Aballéa S., Millier A., Bineau S., Toumi M., Rehm J.

Background: Alcohol consumption is one of the most important factors for disease and disability in Europe. In clinical trials, nalmefene has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of heavy-drinking days (HDDs) per month and total alcohol consumption (TAC) among alcohol-dependent patients versus placebo. Methods: A microsimulation model was developed to estimate alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries in patients with alcohol dependence and to explore the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption. Results: For all diseases and injuries considered, the number of events (inpatient episodes) increased with the number of HDDs and TAC per year. The model predicted that a reduction of 20 HDDs per year would result in 941 fewer alcohol-attributable events per 100,000 patients, while a reduction in intake of 3,000 g/year of pure alcohol (ethanol) would result in 1,325 fewer events per 100,000 patients. Conclusion: The potential gains of reducing consumption in alcohol-dependent patients were considerable.

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